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气象因子对第2代稻飞虱发生程度的影响及预测模型
作者: 刘祖建1  陈 冰1  李志杰1  朱庆春2  陈观浩3 *  
单位: (1 化州市气象局;2 化州市中垌农业技术推广站;3 化州市病虫测报站:广东 化州 525100)  
关键词: 稻飞虱  气象因子  通径分析  预测模型  化州市  
分类号:S435.12.3
出版年,卷(期):页码:2011 ,42 ( 12 ): 页码:1500-1502
摘要:

【Objective】The objective of this experiment was to study the effect of meteorological factors on occurrence and development of rice planthopper in order to forecast for prevention and control of rice planthopper. 【Method】The regression prediction model was developed based on the correlation analysis and path analysis amongst occurrence extent of 2nd generation rice planthopper and main meteorological factors in the light of surveyed data and meteorological materials collected from the year 1995 to 2011 in Huazhou (Guangdong, China). 【Result】Temperature was found to be the prominent factor affecting the occurrence of second generation rice planthopper. Rainfall, sunshine hours and rainy days were found to have lesser direct influences on pest occurrence but played an indirect role through temperature. Accordingly, the prediction model of the occurrence degree of second generation rice planthopper was y=0.3972x1+0.1801x2+0.0020x3+0.0035x4-0.0189x5-10.5637, from which the historical fitting accuracy came up to be 91.3%, and the prediction of the year 2011 conformed with the real situation. 【Conclusion】Temperature is the key factor for the occurrence degree of second generation rice planthopper. The prediction model can be applied to predict the occurrence of rice planthopper and caused by it.

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